Crisis Drivers & Triggers Module

Displacement Drivers & Crisis Triggers

Documenting primary key-informant reported triggers of internal displacement across armed conflict, multi-season drought, and riverine floods without making unsupported causal assertions.

IOM DTM Round 37 Evidence

Methodological Causation Safeguard: Reported causes in IOM DTM represent primary triggers documented by key informants at community level. Humanitarian displacement frequently involves multi-hazard compounding pressures (e.g. drought eroding pastoral coping capacity before localized conflict sparks movement). The observatory strictly avoids asserting monocausal claims or unverified external correlations.

Source: IOM DTM Ethiopia Site Assessment Round 37 & UN OCHA (August 2024)

Primary Displacement Triggers(Round 37 — August 2024)

Key-informant assessed primary trigger across 3,302,000 documented IDPs.

Conflict: 65.4%Prolonged: 25%Flash: 7.1%Other: 2.5%

Conflict & Intercommunal Violence

Primary Trigger

65.4%

2,160,000 IDPs

Armed confrontations, intercommunal boundary disputes, and generalized localized insecurity. Primary driver across Northern, Central, and Western regional states.

Hotspots: Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz

Prolonged Multi-Season Drought

Primary Trigger

25%

825,000 IDPs

Severe multi-season rainfall deficits leading to catastrophic pasture collapse, livestock mortality, and water reservoir depletion among pastoralist communities.

Hotspots: Somali, Oromia (Borena/East Hararghe), Afar

Flash & Riverine Floods

Primary Trigger

7.1%

234,500 IDPs

Sudden seasonal riverine overflows and flash flooding along major drainage basins, particularly during the Deyr/Belg rainy peaks.

Hotspots: Somali (Shabelle/Afder), Afar (Awash Basin), Gambela

Other & Environmental Shocks

Primary Trigger

2.5%

82,500 IDPs

Landslides in highland escarpments, fires in congested camp settlements, localized crop pest infestations, and seasonal pastoral movements.

Hotspots: South Ethiopia, Central Ethiopia, Sidama

Documented Internal Displacement Triggers in Ethiopia
Driver Category	Displaced Individuals	Percentage Share	Primary Hotspot Regions
Conflict & Intercommunal Violence	2160000	65.4%	Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz
Prolonged Multi-Season Drought	825000	25%	Somali, Oromia (Borena/East Hararghe), Afar
Flash & Riverine Floods	234500	7.1%	Somali (Shabelle/Afder), Afar (Awash Basin), Gambela
Other & Environmental Shocks	82500	2.5%	South Ethiopia, Central Ethiopia, Sidama

Context Analysis: Conflict & Intercommunal Violence

(65.4% of total IDP caseload)

National Volume: 2,160,000 individuals

Armed confrontations, intercommunal boundary disputes, and generalized localized insecurity. Primary driver across Northern, Central, and Western regional states.

Contributing Structural Factors

Northern Ethiopia conflict aftermath and protracted shelter destruction
Western Oromia security operations and communal clashes
Amhara regional tensions and localized insecurity
Disputed border administrative areas in Benishangul and Somali-Oromia margins

Primary Geographical Hotspots

TigrayAmharaOromiaBenishangul-Gumuz

Source: IOM DTM Ethiopia Site Assessment Round 37 & UN OCHA (Round 37). Reported during verified woreda and site assessments.